On 3 April, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA), warned about Pakistan facing ‘a 30 per cent water shortage’ this Kharif season. It attributed the shortage to ‘lower than normal winter snowfall in the northern areas,’ affecting the water availability in the catchment areas of the two rivers - Jhelum and Indus. However, IRSA is hopeful that the onset of monsoon will be able to ‘plug the shortage in the latter part of the kharif season.' 
 
What is the problem?
First, the monsoon short fall. According to a Dawn editorial, Pakistan’s water shortage is a recurring phenomenon and only ‘the quantum of water scarcity varies from year to year.’ In April, Dawn had reported a similar warning by IRSA- a 37 per cent water shortage during the 2023 Kharif cropping season. Another editorial in Dawn, quoted a UN Global Water Security Assessment in 2023 which had categorized Pakistan as ‘critically water-insecure.’ According to the assessment, Pakistan was ‘among the most water-stressed countries in the world’ due to ‘an unbridled population and environmental factors.’ 
 
Second, the fallouts of climate change. According to Muhammad Azam Khan, an assistant researcher with IRSA: “There was less snow than normal as a result of climate change affecting the country’s glaciers...This will have a direct impact on the availability of water for kharif crops in the summer.” Another recent report in 2024 (by the US State Department’s International Security Advisory Board) titled “New Security Challenges” also identified climate change as one of the most pressing challenges for the global community and Pakistan. According to the report: “From the tragic floods in Pakistan in 2022 to the prolonged drought across parts of Africa and Latin America, strategic regions are increasingly destabilized by compound climate effects.” An editorial in The News International has lamented “That Pakistan is not taking any measures to protect itself against the harmful effects of climate change is baffling.”
 
Third, inefficient water use and management. For instance, the agricultural sector in Pakistan has been criticized for being inefficient. Any change in water management strategies must begin from changes in the most water-intensive sector. An editorial in Dawn has provided some clues to effective management- ‘improving its inadequate infrastructure by early adoption of modern environment-friendly irrigation technologies.’ The editorial argues that this could help tackle issues of evaporation and pilferage which contribute to 40 per cent of the water loss during irrigation. The editorial also recommends ‘a long-term holistic water management policy’ which is in tune with the larger development goals of the country.
 
Water Scarcity: What are the likely fallouts?
First on the agriculture. Pakistan’s economy is agriculture-dependent economy, contributing 24 per cent of the GDP. A drop in the production of Kharif crops- including rice, maize, sugarcane and cotton- will have wide-ranging economic impacts. Cotton is crucial for the country’s ‘gigantic textile sector.’ Any adverse impact on production will scuttle crucial supply chains and the country’s ability to maintain its competitiveness and share in the international markets. Shortage of food crops will necessitate the need to import food grains, adding burden on a country that is already cash-strapped and on the verge of default without a steady flow of international loans.
 
Second fallout will be on the distribution of water between provinces. Water-sharing between the provinces, especially between Punjab and Sindh has remained tense. According to Feisal Naqvi, a Lahore-based water expert, both provinces have been at loggerheads over ‘water distribution’ since before partition. The main disagreement is on ‘over the distribution of water from the Indus River.’ The 1991 Water Accord aimed at solving the dispute has also failed due to differing interpretations by the two provinces. Experts have also blamed IRSA for the dispute, the authority having failed to implement the 1991 Accord. Separately, Baluchistan has also alleged that Sindh steals its share of water.
  
References
“Where’s our water?,” The News International, 8 April 2024;
“Water crisis,” Dawn, 8 April 2024;
“Country facing 30pc water shortage for sowing season: Irsa,” Dawn, 3 April 2024;
Anwar Iqbal, “Floods in Pakistan reflect security threats, warns US,” Dawn, 1 April 2024;
Khaleeq Kiani, “Irsa confirms 37pc water shortage for Kharif,” Dawn, 7 April 2023;
Anadolu Agency, “Pakistan's water sharing woes continue as provinces remain at odds,” Dawn, 25 September 2021